The pace of deployment — though still at limited scale — is picking up in both the USA and China. However, Europe continues to lag. Developers of Level 4 tech are less mature, including Wayve or Oxbotica in the UK. However, VW will soon start testing robotaxis (with an onboard operator) in Munich as they will in Austin with plans to deploy a commercial service later. The regulatory framework is more stringent and the industry on the continent focuses more on the deployment of ADAS features / Level 2 and Level 3, e.g., Mercedes with EQS / S-Class.

 

 

The Tech Has Made Significant Progress

Waymo was the first company to dedicate significant amounts of funding to AD development starting in 2009. Since then, both Waymo and Cruise reached one million fully driverless miles last February, and Cruise had added a second million by May. Overall, these miles have been driven without serious accidents. However, they have caused — and continue to cause —traffic issues, blocking intersections and remaining in the path of fire or police vehicles.

 

Whereas it has taken Waymo, Cruise and Pony.ai 10, 8 and 6 years respectively from inception to the launch of their fully operator-free robotaxi service, Cruise is now expecting to launch new cities in a matter of months. The company developed a toolbox aimed at accelerating the large-scale generation of entire cities and generating test scenarios. This will be key to scale the service as the company anticipates it will generate $1 billion annually by 2025.

 

My personal experience with Cruise in San Francisco (several evening rides) demonstrated the maturity of the technology. The ride was smooth yet the “driver” was sufficiently daring when passing double-parked vehicles or squeezing between others. However, I look forward to assessing the tech in denser traffic during daytime, i.e., with more pedestrians and cyclists.

 

 

Regulations are Still Far from Mature

Despite lagging in terms of tech and commercial deployment, Europe appears to be leading in terms of the maturity of its AD regulatory framework. Released in April 2022, the framework treats separately fully-automated vehicles (a.k.a. robotaxi), “hub-to-hub” (transportation of passengers or goods on a predefined route) and automated valet parking. In addition, member nations issue specific regs to address liabilities and create a pathway to deployment on public roads.

 

In the USA, the approach is quite different. The lack of regulation at a federal level allows individual states define if and how autonomous vehicles can operate. This explains why Arizona (Phoenix), Texas (Austin, Houston, Dallas) and Nevada (Las Vegas) are prime candidates for the deployment of robotaxi services — and autonomous trucking for the same reason. Conversely, California is more demanding and balances the interest of both corporations and citizens. This week, the state postponed a decision related to robotaxis (see above) and recently passed a regulation requiring the presence of an operator in autonomous trucks — Texas and Arizona do not.

 

The complexity of local regulations combined with their evolutive character makes it difficult for AV operators, suppliers and OEMs to remain aware of their status at all times. Companies such as Austria-based Kontrolprovides a compliance platform (both desktop and embedded solutions) to address this complexity.

 

 

Public Acceptance is Not a Given

A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in March 2022 showed that 63% of adults in the USA would definitely or probably not ride in an autonomous vehicle if they had the opportunity. Likewise, 45% of adults declared they would not feel comfortable sharing the road with and AV. Moreover, 44% said AVs were a bad idea for society.

 

In San Francisco where robotaxis — with no one behind the wheel — are very common, opposition is tamer yet still exists. A couple of weeks ago, a group of activists got in front of robotaxis and placed orange cones on their hoods to express their opposition. This resulted in the vehicles freezing in place, requiring employees to come to the rescue. 

 

I believe robotaxis can contribute to sustainable and safe mobility provided they result in fewer private vehicles and complement public transit rather then replace it.

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P.S.: On August 10, 2023 the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) granted Cruise and Waymo the permit to operate paid rides 24/7 throughout most of San Francisco without safety operator onboard. This is a major step.